Archive for September 1st, 2010

Domination question (theory)


Malefiicus:
Depends on a lot of things. Quick little list of reasons to 3b and reasons to call.

Reasons to call
1) Fish in the blinds
2) You have a plan for most flops (I think QTs needs a plan if you’re flatting it on the BTN)
3) Villain is a 4b monkey (myself for example)
4) Villain flats a wide range OOP vs 3bs
5) Villain bets a wide range on the flop but a narrow range on the turn, folds to floats often

Reasons to 3b
1) Squeezers in the blinds
2) Folds to 3bs often
3) Villain doesn’t 4b often
4) One of your first hands vs villain (more fold equity/builds aggressive dynamic)
5) Villain doesn’t fold to 3bs, but calls the 3b then folds the flop a lot.

I’m sure I’m forgetting some stuff, but just think about it and you should be able to come to a good conclusion.

tubasteve:
one thing:

“Don’t 3bet it for value if it’s going to be dominated by most of your villains range.”

this is something i have discussed with noahSD (and baluagwhale if you can sit through the bad audio of coaching tree 2.2) at length, and he eventually convinced me it is incorrect. usually if you have a hand like KT/KJ and your opponents are only calling 3-bets with hands you dominate:

1) they are folding so much that 3-betting is hugely +EV just based on that FE w/out any postflop play (blockers ftw)
2) when they call, the odds of both of you flopping TP when dominated is the same as flopping a set so you have a ton of FE on a c-bet
3) you don’t have to stack off 100% when you flop TP but even if you do as skreech mentioned its not like they made a correct call pf vs your range given how often they have to c/f
4) people make much bigger mistakes as the OOP 3-bet caller than we do as the IP 3-bettor and i dont think its close as long as we’re not playing like lunatics 

so while this doesn’t mean you should be 3-betting them all over the place, i certainly don’t think people 3-bet them enough. hands liek KJo, ATo, and QTo tend to play pretty well when you are the 3-bettor compared to when you are the caller since w/out the initiative and w/out being suited you cannot continue on nearly as many flops.

check out noah’s 5/10 ghost video b/c that is what really got me started thinking about this topic. i believe he 3-bet a loose BU open with KQo when the guy was folding to 83% 3-bet, i thought to myself “zomg keep the dominated hands in amirite?” and he said “hellz no tubasteve” 

conspecific:
So, just to check my understanding: upsides of 3-betting in position vs the guy that folds way too much pre-flop and check/folds way too much on the flop are that we win a lot of money uncontested. Downsides include the fact that his 3-bet calling range tends to dominate us, so occasionally we hit an unfavorable “favorable” flop and get boned, right?

The question is this: none of those upsides depend on us having KQ or KJ, while all the downsides do. (Well, for top pair hands, being able to pot control in position is good, too, I guess.) So in the case that we can’t effectively valuetown the guy when we hit our top pair (because we assumed he’s check-foldy on the flop and so presumably continuing mostly with the aforementioned range that bones us), shouldn’t we just be 3-betting the polarized range in position (bluffs and monsters)?

tubasteve:
the point is that the EV of 3-betting someone that folds too much is often higher than calling regardless of our hand, and having KQ or KJ gives us blockers that make it more profitable. then postflop, yes, if he’s going to fold he’s going to fold, this is true, but when we have the blockers he’s going to fold more often, making a 3-bet with KQ more profitable than one with K8, which likewise is more profitable than one with T8.

the way noah put it to me was that if he knew his opponent had KQ, he would 3-bet rather than call with KJo despite being a 3-1 underdog b/c he has a ton of FE postflop even if the guy flatcalls every time preflop.

you are correct also that we should be more apt to flatcall some of these hands IP, but there are times when it is not a great idea such as when there are light squeezers behind, or if you want to avoid multiway action.

also, you shouldn’t 3-bet 67s that often mainly b/c it plays way better in single raised pots than 3-bet pots, even moreso than KQ by far.

When should I be looking to Bet/Fold?


BalugaWhale:
its pretty simple actually–

being passive means only raising for value.

when youre playing against someone who is going for value, count the number of worse hands that can be going for value vs the number of better hands. if theres a lot of worse hands, you cant fold. if there arent, you cant call.
so, hand 1 is a call, hand 2 is a fold, etc., hands 3-5 are folds, etc.
you should rarely ever take a c/c line against a passive player for obvious reasons (youre bluff catching and they dont bluff).

And wtf is up with your min3-bet on the river with the 2nd nuts. make a real 3bet for value.

Sounded Simple:
I think we all know that bet/fold is the line best suited to when opponents calling ranges are wide but raising ranges are narrow. Sounds simple (pardon the pun) but its true and we all actually know this.

I think the problem most uNL players have is the fold part. Folding isn’t fun, I hate it and I bet you do too.
For me the biggest reason I hate folding isn’t that I have to fold a good hand its that I might be folding the best hand, that does annoy me.

So I think the problem that underlies here is having confidence in your hand reading abilities.

So with that in mind I recommend this exersise:
– Open HEM/PT3 and filter for
> Single Raised Pots
> Final pot >180bb (shorter stacks are easy to play anyway)
> You are OOP (because this is tougher)
> You cbet and are called HU
> You bet the turn
> You saw a showdown

Manually or in excel note the
> Player Type
> Flop SPR
> Board / Board Type
> Positions
> Villains turn action
> Villains hand

Your hand or who won is not relevant, now look at the info you have on what player types are doing on the turn with what holdings.
You may want to get more specific with the filters once you see patterns emerge.

WiltOnTilt:
the reason that bet/folding is such a powerful exploitative strategy is because people don’t bluff raise later streets often enough in general. This is especially true vs players we deem “passive” as BW said. So in general, we should be betting later streets when we feel like we’re a favorite when called and/or when there’s value in winning the pot now to protect our share (equity) of the pot. This is why thin value betting has become so prevalent as you move up, because people have figured out that they can bet for extremely thin value against many players because they’ll have an easy response vs further aggression. Eventually (and to some degree, now) people will realize that vs thin value bettors they need to slowplay more and bluff raise later streets more, but we’re not to that point yet (and vs the fish, by definition, we’ll never be at that point) so continue to bet away for value and continue to make good folds to raises vs people who either aren’t bluff raising very much or value raising very many worse hands.

In terms of post game analysis, do like BW said. Count up the worse value hands and estimate how often you think it’s a semi bluff. Of those hands, count up the combos (review Math of NLHE series for help on that) and figure out the value and semibluff combinations. See what your equity is vs that range in pokerstove, then figure out how many bluff combos you’ll have to add in there to be able to continue in the hand (if any). Compare the number of bluff combos you’ll need to the number of value hands you have already counted up. How does it look in comparison to your pot odds?

Hope that helps
WoT